Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3638 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3638 CVG 06:30 → MIA 09:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3554 CVG 16:04 → MIA 18:49 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3638 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:30	MIA 09:08	14%	4%	0.8%	88%
MQ 3847 Envoy	CVG 08:43	MIA 11:29	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3554 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 16:04	MIA 18:49	30%	9%	1.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON