Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2752 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:09	MSP 07:05	6%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 954 Delta Flight history →	CVG 11:00	MSP 11:54	9%	3%	0.5%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:00 → DCA 08:33DL 5229 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Washington	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	7h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 35m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 51m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697	5h 57m	97%	83%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → MSP 12:21UA 215	6h 21m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:20 → MCO 13:36DL 5440 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m Orlando	MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208	7h 19m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 14:15 → DTW 15:33DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor	47m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	3h 57m	72%	60%
Delta Details →	CVG 12:35 → DCA 14:07DL 5221 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m Washington	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	5h 21m	62%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON