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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 08:16, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → CVG 08:16 → CLT 09:50AA 429 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 4h 20m 91% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182 6h 14m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047 4h 49m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 20m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → CVG 07:53 → PHL 09:43AA 5578 · flown by PSA 1h 10m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 09m 90% 74%
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:15 → CLT 12:49AA 430 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 15:58 → MYR 17:06AA 2943 5h 51m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:57 → ATL 18:33DL 3169 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074 4h 52m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → CVG 12:00 → EWR 14:04UA 4192 · flown by GoJet 1h 47m Newark EWR 15:51 → MYR 17:59UA 3589 · flown by Republic 5h 59m 84% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON