Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1379 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1379 CVG 05:27 → ORD 05:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5595 CVG 18:09 → ORD 18:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1379 United	CVG 05:27	ORD 05:54	7%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4094 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:32	10%	4%	1.0%	82%
UA 1738 United	CVG 10:37	ORD 11:04	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2752 United Flight history →	CVG 07:00	ORD 07:34	16%	5%	1.0%	91%
YX 3690 Republic	CVG 09:15	ORD 09:44	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 19:23	ORD 19:57	17%	5%	0.9%	80%
MQ 3935 Envoy	CVG 10:34	ORD 11:01	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 4460 Republic	CVG 13:37	ORD 14:06	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2755 American	CVG 07:49	ORD 08:19	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 12:02	ORD 12:35	22%	7%	0.9%	67%
OO 4749 SkyWest	CVG 16:11	ORD 16:46	27%	11%	1.9%	no record
OO 4735 SkyWest	CVG 14:08	ORD 14:38	30%	10%	1.5%	no record
OO 5595 SkyWest	CVG 18:09	ORD 18:40	31%	10%	1.5%	no record
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON