tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 08:04, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3091 American CVG 15:05 PHX 16:09 18% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 34m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:54DL 954 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284 7h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431 7h 49m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 9h 16m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:00 → LAX 08:30DL 393 1h 20m Los Angeles LAX 09:50 → PHX 11:25DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:04UA 1666 2h 21m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 18m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 8h 36m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 08:04 → DFW 09:40AA 807 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905 5h 59m 74% 59%
AmericanDetails → CVG 19:23 → ORD 19:57AA 4343 · flown by Republic 54m Chicago ORD 20:51 → PHX 22:48AA 3277 6h 25m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON