tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 5h 38m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 33m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550 6h 57m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m Detroit DTW 10:10 → RDU 11:52DL 2164 5h 33m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:54DL 954 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699 7h 12m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Chicago ORD 08:20 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 5h 38m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 14m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 01m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → CVG 07:53 → PHL 09:43AA 5578 · flown by PSA 3h 11m Philadelphia PHL 12:54 → RDU 14:32AA 1441 6h 39m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 19:23 → ORD 19:57AA 4343 · flown by Republic 49m Chicago ORD 20:46 → RDU 23:46AA 600 4h 23m 63% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON