Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1600 at 07:31, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1600 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:31	RSW 09:46	9%	3%	3.1%	90%
DL 5475 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 12:30	RSW 15:02	22%	15%	0.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 18m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153	6h 27m	99%	82%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → RSW 14:55UA 2137	7h 55m	100%	80%
United Details →	CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442	1h 20m Houston	IAH 09:31 → RSW 13:08UA 494	6h 33m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:54DL 954	56m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → RSW 17:18DL 2219	6h 18m	90%	76%
American Details →	CVG 07:53 → PHL 09:43AA 5578 · flown by PSA	1h 41m Philadelphia	PHL 11:24 → RSW 14:30AA 507	6h 37m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	6h 35m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:38 → RSW 11:33DL 2001	5h 14m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON