tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 966 Delta Flight history → CVG 06:40 SEA 08:34 8% 2% 0.6% 86%
AS 519 Alaska CVG 08:40 SEA 10:38 21% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868 7h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:16 → LAS 08:16DL 2915 2h 53m Las Vegas LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 9h 44m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:54DL 954 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 9h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 9h 13m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 41m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:10 → AUS 09:50DL 5005 · flown by Endeavor 1h 29m Austin AUS 11:19 → SEA 13:50DL 1684 8h 40m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:00 → LAX 08:30DL 393 3h 39m Los Angeles LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 10h 55m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 8h 37m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON