Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 1668 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 06:23	TPA 08:52	11%	4%	4.5%	88%
DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:20	TPA 17:29	14%	5%	1.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:14DL 2264	8h 05m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → DTW 07:20DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	6h 41m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	6h 39m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	6h 59m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CVG 14:07 → DTW 15:20DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Detroit	DTW 18:30 → TPA 21:09DL 1355	7h 02m	98%	80%
American Details →	CVG 06:02 → DCA 07:50AA 5445 · flown by PSA	2h 31m Washington	DCA 10:21 → TPA 13:03AA 3126	7h 01m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	6h 35m	100%	78%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	8h 12m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON