Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 516 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 516 DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1316 DAL 18:18 → ATL 21:28 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 516 Delta Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ATL 09:17	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 336 Southwest	DAL 07:53	ATL 11:03	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	DAL 11:49	ATL 15:05	17%	4%	0.8%	85%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	DAL 15:01	ATL 18:16	19%	7%	1.7%	72%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	DAL 18:39	ATL 22:00	24%	12%	2.5%	78%
WN 1340 Southwest	DAL 14:08	ATL 17:18	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1316 Southwest	DAL 18:18	ATL 21:28	30%	11%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON