Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1903 at 11:58, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1903 Southwest	DAL 11:58	BHM 13:46	15%	3%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 05m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044	7h 12m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:00 → HOU 14:15WN 27	3h 23m Houston	HOU 17:38 → BHM 19:26WN 4267	6h 26m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	4h 57m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON