Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1326 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1326 DAL 08:58 → BNA 10:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4263 DAL 18:38 → BNA 20:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1326 Southwest	DAL 08:58	BNA 10:58	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1325 Southwest	DAL 07:08	BNA 09:03	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1328 Southwest	DAL 15:13	BNA 17:13	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 654 Southwest	DAL 13:13	BNA 15:13	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4263 Southwest	DAL 18:38	BNA 20:33	26%	9%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON