Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 324 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 324 Southwest	DAL 08:09	BOS 12:46	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 8776 JetBlue	DAL 16:28	BOS 21:09	33%	18%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 42m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	8h 11m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:56 → BOS 22:35DL 457	6h 34m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON