Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1348 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1348 DAL 06:43 → DEN 07:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1352 DAL 17:43 → DEN 18:58 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1348 Southwest	DAL 06:43	DEN 07:53	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1397 Southwest	DAL 00:00	DEN 01:10	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 295 Southwest	DAL 10:58	DEN 12:13	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1350 Southwest	DAL 09:28	DEN 10:43	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 8709 JetBlue	DAL 00:25	DEN 01:32	18%	6%	1.4%	no record
WN 205 Southwest	DAL 14:23	DEN 15:38	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4089 Southwest	DAL 16:13	DEN 17:28	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1352 Southwest	DAL 17:43	DEN 18:58	38%	8%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON