Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 311 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:51	ECP 10:54	11%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 149 Southwest	DAL 17:57	ECP 19:58	29%	9%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823	6h 35m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20WN 1628	3h 03m Houston	HOU 10:23 → ECP 12:16WN 1464	6h 06m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053	7h 23m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131	4h 19m	69%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON