Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3682 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3682 DAL 07:48 → ELP 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4783 DAL 19:28 → ELP 20:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3682 Southwest	DAL 07:48	ELP 08:35	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1361 Southwest	DAL 00:15	ELP 01:08	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1929 Southwest	DAL 15:23	ELP 16:21	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1412 Southwest	DAL 13:08	ELP 14:06	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4783 Southwest	DAL 19:28	ELP 20:26	23%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON