Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 22 at 13:33, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 22 Southwest	DAL 13:33	FLL 17:30	30%	7%	2.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20WN 1628	3h 08m Houston	HOU 10:28 → FLL 14:05WN 1596	6h 55m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	7h 22m	98%	74%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:00 → HOU 14:15WN 27	3h 38m Houston	HOU 17:53 → FLL 21:25WN 2045	7h 25m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 54m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489	5h 55m	91%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON