Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1628 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 53 DAL 19:43 → HOU 21:02 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	HOU 07:20	3%	1%	1.0%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:23	HOU 09:42	4%	2%	1.0%	84%
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:38	HOU 10:57	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
WN 8504 Southwest	DAL 09:58	HOU 11:02	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 21 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:13	HOU 13:32	14%	4%	1.0%	67%
WN 37 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:45	HOU 17:00	17%	5%	1.3%	66%
WN 27 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:00	HOU 14:15	18%	4%	1.1%	78%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:43	HOU 19:07	22%	8%	1.5%	60%
WN 53 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:43	HOU 21:02	23%	7%	1.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON