Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4928 at 07:58, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4928 Southwest	DAL 07:58	JAX 11:22	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024	6h 20m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:38 → HOU 10:57WN 11	3h 46m Houston	HOU 14:43 → JAX 17:57WN 1768	7h 19m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:34 → JAX 17:50DL 2440	5h 01m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → JAX 22:15DL 2189	6h 14m	98%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	54m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	4h 30m	72%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON