Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1365 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1365 DAL 05:52 → LAS 06:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 989 DAL 18:13 → LAS 19:19 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1365 Southwest	DAL 05:52	LAS 06:38	8%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 986 Southwest	DAL 07:33	LAS 08:39	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 523 Southwest	DAL 11:08	LAS 12:14	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2269 Southwest	DAL 15:53	LAS 17:04	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 1369 Southwest	DAL 13:48	LAS 14:54	24%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 989 Southwest	DAL 18:13	LAS 19:19	32%	15%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON