Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 978 at 09:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 978 Southwest	DAL 09:23	LIT 10:46	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 172 Southwest	DAL 19:28	LIT 20:51	25%	9%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:32 → LIT 17:12DL 3025	5h 23m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	53m Atlanta	ATL 19:09 → LIT 19:44DL 2701	4h 43m	78%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON