Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1771 Southwest	DAL 13:03	MAF 14:31	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4294 Southwest	DAL 19:28	MAF 20:56	24%	8%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20WN 1628	1h 08m Houston	HOU 08:28 → MAF 10:06WN 2330	3h 56m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:45 → HOU 17:00WN 37	2h 53m Houston	HOU 19:53 → MAF 21:31WN 1664	5h 46m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:43 → HOU 19:07WN 45	46m Houston	HOU 19:53 → MAF 21:31WN 1664	3h 48m	69%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON