Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1404 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1404 DAL 05:58 → MCO 09:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4557 DAL 19:33 → MCO 23:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1404 Southwest	DAL 05:58	MCO 09:35	7%	2%	5.3%	no record
WN 1405 Southwest	DAL 08:13	MCO 11:56	8%	2%	5.6%	no record
WN 1156 Southwest	DAL 09:33	MCO 13:16	11%	2%	15.6%	no record
WN 1407 Southwest	DAL 11:28	MCO 15:16	21%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 4247 Southwest	DAL 14:28	MCO 18:11	25%	6%	1.7%	no record
WN 1561 Southwest	DAL 18:03	MCO 21:41	26%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 4557 Southwest	DAL 19:33	MCO 23:16	27%	8%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON