Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:38 → HOU 10:57WN 11	3h 41m Houston	HOU 14:38 → MEM 16:20WN 3054	6h 42m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	6h 27m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:39DL 3020	5h 38m	93%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → MEM 23:12DL 2501	4h 33m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON