Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1338 at 11:38, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1338 Southwest	DAL 11:38	MIA 15:29	25%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20WN 1628	3h 38m Houston	HOU 10:58 → MIA 14:29WN 1666	7h 19m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 02m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719	6h 55m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	5h 58m	90%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 16m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON