Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4351 at 15:13, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4351 Southwest	DAL 15:13	MKE 17:45	20%	7%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	7h 45m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388	6h 01m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	50m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	5h 10m	78%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON