Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1420 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1420 DAL 07:53 → MSY 09:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1280 DAL 19:33 → MSY 21:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1420 Southwest	DAL 07:53	MSY 09:30	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1460 Southwest	DAL 10:22	MSY 12:24	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 856 Southwest	DAL 15:48	MSY 17:25	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1385 Southwest	DAL 13:48	MSY 15:25	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1280 Southwest	DAL 19:33	MSY 21:05	24%	9%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON