Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4332 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4332 Southwest	DAL 10:33	OKC 11:46	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4929 Southwest	DAL 19:33	OKC 20:46	27%	14%	3.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20WN 1628	1h 58m Houston	HOU 09:18 → OKC 10:56WN 4016	4h 46m	99%	94%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:38 → HOU 10:57WN 11	3h 46m Houston	HOU 14:43 → OKC 16:21WN 4108	6h 43m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	7h 27m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON