Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1433 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1433 DAL 05:51 → PHX 06:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1438 DAL 19:43 → PHX 20:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1433 Southwest	DAL 05:51	PHX 06:22	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 561 Southwest	DAL 07:43	PHX 08:28	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1394 Southwest	DAL 11:03	PHX 11:48	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1436 Southwest	DAL 13:13	PHX 13:58	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 8843 Delta	DAL 16:54	PHX 17:19	25%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 1437 Southwest	DAL 17:58	PHX 18:43	26%	8%	1.5%	no record
WN 1438 Southwest	DAL 19:43	PHX 20:28	27%	8%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON