Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3998 at 07:49, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3998 Southwest	DAL 07:49	PIT 11:18	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122	5h 56m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PIT 21:35DL 2583	5h 34m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON