Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1442 at 08:58, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1442 Southwest	DAL 08:58	PNS 10:50	7%	2%	7.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20WN 1628	3h 38m Houston	HOU 10:58 → PNS 12:45WN 679	6h 35m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640	6h 50m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086	6h 58m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211	5h 21m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON