Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1180 at 17:08, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1180 Southwest	DAL 17:08	RDU 20:56	29%	11%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 37m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	6h 26m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 22:00DL 3244	5h 59m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:13 → HOU 13:32WN 21	1h 26m Houston	HOU 14:58 → RDU 18:46WN 4602	5h 33m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:41 +1DL 2938	5h 02m	80%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	47m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600	4h 36m	74%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON