Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1565 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1565 DAL 07:55 → SAT 09:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1370 DAL 19:28 → SAT 20:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1565 Southwest	DAL 07:55	SAT 09:09	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1488 Southwest	DAL 10:58	SAT 12:15	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2884 Southwest	DAL 12:33	SAT 13:50	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1933 Southwest	DAL 15:53	SAT 17:10	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1370 Southwest	DAL 19:28	SAT 20:45	20%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON