Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Louisville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	5h 26m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	6h 24m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842	6h 06m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:13 → HOU 13:32WN 21	1h 41m Houston	HOU 15:13 → SDF 18:35WN 2630	5h 22m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → SDF 00:14 +1DL 2624	4h 35m	68%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON