Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3845 at 16:53, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3845 Southwest	DAL 16:53	SMF 18:50	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 12:13 → HOU 13:32WN 21	1h 31m Houston	HOU 15:03 → SMF 17:20WN 3544	7h 07m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:26 → SMF 21:27DL 682	8h 26m	84%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:00 → HOU 14:15WN 27	48m Houston	HOU 15:03 → SMF 17:20WN 3544	6h 20m	73%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON