Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1745 Southwest	DAL 12:03	TUL 13:21	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1193 Southwest	DAL 19:28	TUL 20:46	24%	10%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620	5h 59m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:38 → HOU 10:57WN 11	3h 41m Houston	HOU 14:38 → TUL 16:21WN 2643	6h 43m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:01 → ATL 18:16DL 512	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043	7h 17m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 16:47 → TUL 17:56DL 4837 · flown by Endeavor	6h 06m	95%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON