Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 18 at 12:36, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 18 Southwest	DAL 12:36	VPS 14:46	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 11:49 → ATL 15:05DL 441	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 53m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:38 → HOU 10:57WN 11	3h 41m Houston	HOU 14:38 → VPS 16:27WN 547	6h 49m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	58m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 24m	92%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097	4h 24m	70%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON