Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2810 DFW 16:17 → SFO 17:59 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 790 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	SFO 07:47	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1462 Southwest	DAL 07:58	SFO 09:55	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:16	SJC 11:04	19%	4%	0.9%	77%
WN 1508 Southwest	DAL 16:58	SJC 18:51	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1949 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SFO 08:53	21%	6%	1.2%	78%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 12:02	SJC 13:49	24%	5%	0.9%	75%
UA 1922 United	DFW 10:55	SFO 13:01	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2309 American	DFW 08:20	SFO 10:18	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 1894 Southwest	DAL 18:13	OAK 20:09	34%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:06	SJC 21:56	34%	10%	3.3%	66%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	37%	10%	1.2%	57%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	37%	17%	5.0%	55%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	SFO 15:07	38%	11%	1.2%	81%worse than usual
UA 2330 United Flight history →	DFW 19:51	SFO 21:35	42%	16%	1.0%	71%worse than usual
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:30	SFO 19:23	46%	15%	2.0%	no record
AA 2522 American Flight history →	DFW 21:48	SFO 23:33	47%	20%	10.5%	26%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	49%	15%	2.9%	52%
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	49%	16%	1.7%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	47m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	5h 33m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON