Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1411 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 1411 DAL 06:58 → MDW 09:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2656 DFW 18:23 → ORD 21:00 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1411 Southwest	DAL 06:58	MDW 09:20	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4418 Southwest	DAL 10:48	MDW 13:15	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	ORD 07:33	12%	4%	1.2%	90%
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:53	ORD 08:32	12%	4%	1.2%	76%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	13%	6%	0.7%	82%
WN 509 Southwest	DAL 12:58	MDW 15:25	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 2882 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:35	MDW 12:00	18%	6%	1.0%	65%
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:29	ORD 11:00	20%	6%	1.2%	85%
AA 1858 American	DFW 07:31	ORD 10:02	20%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1634 United Flight history →	DFW 10:33	ORD 13:02	21%	8%	0.8%	83%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	21%	9%	0.8%	74%
WN 532 Southwest	DAL 18:18	MDW 20:45	24%	7%	1.4%	no record
F9 4504 Frontier	DFW 20:31	ORD 23:09	25%	12%	4.2%	no record
AA 1251 American	DFW 09:40	ORD 12:09	26%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	29%	13%	1.3%	68%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	ORD 13:58	30%	8%	1.3%	72%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:58	30%	11%	0.8%	63%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:26	ORD 21:52	32%	8%	4.3%	66%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	33%	10%	1.9%	66%
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:32	ORD 20:09	35%	14%	2.9%	63%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	35%	14%	1.1%	60%
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:44	ORD 19:30	37%	12%	1.6%	69%
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:51	ORD 20:20	37%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	38%	19%	10.3%	63%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	DFW 21:39	ORD 00:08	39%	18%	10.4%	56%
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:41	ORD 18:16	41%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:37	ORD 20:24	41%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:23	ORD 21:00	43%	13%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON