Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1628 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:10 → HOU 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2209 DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	HOU 07:20	3%	1%	1.0%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:23	HOU 09:42	4%	2%	1.0%	84%
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:38	HOU 10:57	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
WN 8504 Southwest	DAL 09:58	HOU 11:02	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	8%	3%	0.7%	95%
WN 21 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:13	HOU 13:32	14%	4%	1.0%	67%
WN 37 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:45	HOU 17:00	17%	5%	1.3%	66%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:52	IAH 11:19	17%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	17%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:07	IAH 08:34	18%	4%	1.1%	69%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:22	IAH 11:39	18%	4%	1.0%	97%worse than usual
WN 27 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:00	HOU 14:15	18%	4%	1.1%	78%
AA 9754 American	DFW 09:02	HOU 10:31	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:53	HOU 11:17	20%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:17	HOU 13:41	20%	8%	1.3%	no record
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:26	IAH 15:53	21%	9%	1.0%	no record
YV 4003 Mesa	DFW 11:56	IAH 13:28	21%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:43	HOU 19:07	21%	8%	1.5%	60%
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:36	HOU 15:53	21%	4%	1.6%	no record
WN 53 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:43	HOU 21:02	23%	7%	1.6%	71%
YV 4030 Mesa	DFW 14:17	IAH 15:43	23%	11%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	DFW 16:47	HOU 18:09	23%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:37	HOU 19:58	26%	7%	3.9%	68%
OH 5299 PSA	DFW 17:21	IAH 18:46	26%	13%	2.4%	no record
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	IAH 09:33	28%	6%	0.9%	77%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:26	IAH 18:55	29%	15%	1.1%	60%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:00	IAH 17:17	33%	14%	1.0%	67%
AA 1397 American	DFW 12:05	IAH 13:23	34%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 9748 American	DFW 14:32	IAH 15:50	38%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	43%	17%	2.6%	50%
AA 1386 American	DFW 18:01	IAH 19:19	43%	17%	1.9%	no record
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	47%	26%	11.3%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON