Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 39 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 439 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 06:55 → LAX 08:03 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2038 DFW 21:25 → LAX 22:39 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	LAX 08:03	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
WN 1373 Southwest	DAL 07:09	LAX 08:17	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 07:06	SNA 08:25	12%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:36	SNA 09:53	15%	3%	1.0%	78%
AA 3303 American	DFW 06:30	LAX 07:47	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:41	SNA 10:58	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:03	LAX 15:26	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
WN 1862 Southwest	DAL 14:58	SNA 16:26	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4620 Southwest	DAL 13:23	BUR 14:56	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:26	SNA 13:42	20%	5%	1.0%	84%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	ONT 09:38	21%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	LAX 08:32	21%	4%	1.0%	85%
WN 1926 Southwest	DAL 17:43	LGB 19:11	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 2511 Southwest	DAL 14:53	LAX 16:22	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:38	SNA 12:53	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1806 Southwest	DAL 16:58	ONT 18:20	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:08	LAX 17:22	23%	5%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	SNA 15:52	23%	6%	1.0%	80%
AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:24	BUR 11:49	24%	7%	1.3%	75%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ONT 13:34	24%	7%	0.9%	84%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:51	ONT 18:19	25%	10%	1.6%	79%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	ONT 11:56	25%	6%	1.0%	74%
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	26%	4%	1.1%	83%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:24	SNA 17:40	26%	6%	1.8%	80%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	LAX 10:49	26%	5%	1.0%	69%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:50	LAX 12:08	27%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:10	LAX 23:38	27%	16%	9.2%	77%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	29%	7%	2.6%	68%
WN 1423 Southwest	DAL 18:43	LAX 20:07	31%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:10	LAX 14:25	31%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:46	LAX 12:57	33%	5%	1.0%	75%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:27	LAX 16:42	36%	9%	1.1%	52%
AA 2147 American	DFW 19:02	ONT 20:18	38%	11%	2.5%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:29	LAX 17:44	39%	11%	1.6%	61%
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:45	LAX 19:02	39%	12%	1.9%	no record
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	41%	14%	2.8%	63%
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:44	LAX 20:02	43%	11%	2.2%	no record
AA 1695 American	DFW 21:17	ONT 22:29	45%	20%	10.4%	no record
AA 2038 American	DFW 21:25	LAX 22:39	46%	18%	10.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON