Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4827 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4827 DAL 05:57 → LGA 10:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:37 → EWR 19:20 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4827 Southwest	DAL 05:57	LGA 10:13	9%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 2215 United	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:08	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	11%	3%	1.3%	86%
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 07:19	EWR 11:56	12%	4%	1.0%	89%
DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	12%	3%	1.0%	90%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	16%	6%	1.2%	83%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:27	LGA 11:58	17%	3%	2.0%	83%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	EWR 11:43	19%	4%	1.5%	81%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:27	LGA 13:10	20%	4%	1.8%	75%
WN 875 Southwest	DAL 11:18	LGA 15:48	21%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:20	EWR 13:37	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 1810 Delta	DFW 12:04	LGA 16:34	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	DAL 17:43	LGA 22:13	26%	10%	1.9%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	26%	11%	1.7%	69%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:23	LGA 19:59	26%	11%	2.6%	61%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	26%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 2178 American	DFW 10:00	LGA 14:40	27%	7%	1.7%	no record
YX 3647 Republic	DFW 12:46	EWR 17:41	28%	9%	1.7%	no record
AA 1375 American	DFW 18:57	LGA 23:37	31%	10%	3.8%	no record
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:11	JFK 17:56	32%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2434 American	DFW 14:58	LGA 19:37	33%	10%	1.9%	no record
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 13:05	LGA 17:45	35%	11%	1.8%	59%
UA 2461 United	DFW 16:56	EWR 21:32	35%	16%	1.2%	no record
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 16:45	LGA 21:26	36%	13%	2.4%	54%
AA 481 American Flight history →	DFW 16:45	JFK 21:31	36%	14%	1.0%	50%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:15	36%	12%	1.3%	64%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	37%	13%	1.0%	57%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:21	EWR 23:02	38%	15%	2.8%	56%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	EWR 16:35	38%	13%	1.4%	69%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	EWR 19:20	44%	17%	1.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON