Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2130 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2130 DAL 06:13 → DCA 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2251 DFW 17:20 → BWI 21:38 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2130 Southwest	DAL 06:13	DCA 10:09	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	9%	2%	1.0%	88%
WN 1332 Southwest	DAL 05:50	BWI 09:45	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1083 Southwest	DAL 09:43	BWI 13:50	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	DCA 12:52	14%	4%	1.0%	85%
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:38	DCA 13:54	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:28	IAD 11:38	16%	6%	1.0%	84%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	17%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	BWI 11:18	17%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	IAD 14:26	18%	5%	0.8%	90%
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:37	BWI 11:50	19%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	19%	6%	1.0%	70%
WN 113 Southwest	DAL 12:03	DCA 16:04	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1335 Southwest	DAL 15:33	BWI 19:40	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2520 American	DFW 14:54	DCA 19:11	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 4711 Southwest	DAL 16:48	DCA 20:59	26%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:21	IAD 21:30	26%	11%	0.8%	79%
WN 9000 Southwest	DAL 18:53	BWI 22:55	27%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2254 American	DFW 16:21	IAD 20:32	28%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	29%	10%	2.5%	64%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	30%	11%	1.8%	65%
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	32%	11%	2.0%	62%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 17:20	BWI 21:38	37%	13%	1.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON