Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5234 DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5113 DAY 18:12 → CLT 20:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5234 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:31	CLT 08:20	6%	2%	1.0%	89%
AA 5242 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:30	CLT 10:19	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
OH 5209 PSA	DAY 09:44	CLT 11:37	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 5385 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 13:00	CLT 14:40	10%	4%	1.0%	88%
AA 5113 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:12	CLT 20:02	14%	5%	1.1%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON