Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:38	DCA 09:26	9%	4%	1.5%	80%
OH 5407 PSA	DAY 12:23	DCA 14:09	14%	6%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 07:14 → DCA 10:07UA 1077	4h 27m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DAY 06:40 → ATL 08:23DL 3140	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 12m	98%	85%
American Details →	DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA	59m Charlotte	CLT 09:19 → DCA 10:59AA 3043	4h 28m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	DAY 16:29 → ATL 18:13DL 2763	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	7h 23m	99%	80%
American Details →	DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50AA 5157 · flown by PSA	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	8h 50m	98%	78%
United Details →	DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	7h 07m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 07m	99%	76%
American Details →	DAY 18:12 → CLT 20:02AA 5113 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	5h 41m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON