Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1235 at 09:01, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1235 United Flight history →	DAY 09:01	DEN 10:04	9%	3%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dayton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DAY 05:59 → PHL 07:51AA 5229 · flown by PSA	1h 39m Philadelphia	PHL 09:30 → DEN 11:39AA 1313	7h 40m	100%	85%
United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217	5h 09m	92%	84%
United Details →	DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet	2h 42m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	8h 06m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → DEN 17:08DL 493	7h 45m	99%	81%
American Details →	DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → DEN 12:27AA 1662	7h 56m	98%	79%
American Details →	DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → DEN 14:46AA 696	8h 16m	99%	78%
United Details →	DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → DEN 12:50UA 2857	7h 35m	94%	74%
United Details →	DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803	6h 51m	92%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet	54m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → DEN 14:38UA 2809	4h 59m	75%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON