tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4181 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DAY 10:23 IAD 11:53 16% 8% 0.0% 84%
UA 4824 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record DAY 14:53 IAD 16:30 20% 10% 1.9% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 2h 48m Chicago ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277 6h 15m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695 5h 51m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 3h 11m Chicago ORD 11:06 → IAD 14:05UA 1486 6h 50m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50AA 5157 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → IAD 14:26AA 524 7h 17m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → DAY 13:00 → CLT 14:40AA 5385 · flown by PSA 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA 4h 47m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet 2h 46m Chicago ORD 14:51 → IAD 17:49UA 587 6h 10m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → DAY 18:12 → CLT 20:02AA 5113 · flown by PSA 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608 4h 30m 88% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON