Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3686 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3686 DAY 05:38 → ORD 05:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3951 DAY 19:12 → ORD 19:51 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3686 Envoy	DAY 05:38	ORD 05:53	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3949 Envoy	DAY 12:22	ORD 12:48	20%	4%	1.3%	no record
OO 4806 SkyWest	DAY 11:45	ORD 12:02	20%	7%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3951 Envoy	DAY 19:12	ORD 19:51	22%	5%	1.8%	no record
UA 4415 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 05:40	ORD 05:55	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4402 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 07:15	ORD 07:55	17%	9%	2.2%	83%
UA 4453 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 11:39	ORD 12:05	21%	12%	2.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON