Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5229 at 05:59, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 05:59	PHL 07:51	8%	4%	1.3%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAY 06:40 → ATL 08:23DL 3140	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	7h 35m	99%	84%
United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → PHL 12:31UA 729	6h 51m	100%	83%
American Details →	DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA	1h 10m Charlotte	CLT 09:30 → PHL 11:21AA 2565	4h 50m	95%	82%
American Details →	DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 20m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	53m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	4h 35m	92%	77%
United Details →	DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	7h 32m	95%	74%
American Details →	DAY 13:00 → CLT 14:40AA 5385 · flown by PSA	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → PHL 20:01AA 423	7h 01m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	DAY 16:29 → ATL 18:13DL 2763	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174	5h 13m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON