Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 410 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 410 DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5029 DCA 18:00 → ATL 20:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:43	6%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 824 Delta	DCA 06:59	ATL 08:51	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4576 Republic	DCA 13:19	ATL 15:27	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:59	ATL 10:57	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 1149 Southwest	DCA 12:02	ATL 14:03	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:05	14%	3%	0.7%	87%
MQ 3881 Envoy	DCA 08:11	ATL 10:14	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2003 Delta	DCA 14:07	ATL 15:58	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	15%	5%	1.2%	73%
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 1484 Southwest	DCA 16:02	ATL 18:08	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:17	16%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	18%	7%	1.7%	68%
OH 5029 PSA	DCA 18:00	ATL 20:08	26%	9%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON